Persist or Pivot? A 4-Step Test When Your Business Hits a Wall
Persist or Pivot? A 4-Step Test When Your Business Hits a Wall
Last winter, Denver Roast had three weeks of cash left and shrinking foot traffic. Co-founder Brenda Chen reread “Is It Time to Pivot Your Strategy?” by Tomas Chamorro-Premuzic in Harvard Business Review and spotted a line that saved her: “Change the route, not the destination.” She paused new ads, surveyed 40 customers, and shifted from in-shop lattes to office coffee subscriptions. Sales are now 26 % above pre-crisis levels. (hbr.org)
Why should you care? Because only 49.2 % of U.S. small businesses survive five years; most collapse while leaders debate whether to stay the course or switch tactics. (advocacy.sba.gov)
Below is a practical four-step test—built from MIT Sloan research and field cases—to decide if you persist or pivot today.
Definitions for clarity
Pivot: a deliberate shift in product, market, or channel based on fresh evidence, not panic (HBR). (hbr.org)
Core metric: the single number that best tracks customer value creation—think weekly paid subscriptions.
Burn rate: monthly cash outflow; controlling it extends runway. (investopedia.com)
Common mistakes
Analysis paralysis. Perfect information never arrives; windows close first.
Vanity metrics. Likes and follows feel good; they don’t pay rent.
Silent pivots. Teams execute poorly on changes they didn’t help shape—share the “why” early.
Brenda applied the test: 0.75-month runway, declining repeat visits, 70 % confidence after interviews, and a $300 pilot via LinkedIn ads that covered costs in 10 days. The data said pivot, and the quick win funded the full transition.
Tough times demand decisive action grounded in numbers, not nerves. Which step of the four-part test will you complete before Friday—and what might it reveal about your next move? Drop your answer below; your insight could steer another founder out of the storm.
